Dating, it's a numbers game

I have only one exam left. Hallelujah! I’ll be writing Ancient Culture Studies on the 27^th and then I will be able to give my full attention to lounging around my house, tracking through Africa by 4x4 and packing for my move to Pretoria.

I have been quiet on the blog, studying, preparing for an event I’m speaking at tomorrow night and writing Greek. It has been a very depressing time indeed. I can barely contain myself for tonight where I will finally be able to socialize with my church buddies at our weekly gathering.

As my brain is still on full academic mode and the depression of exams is still with me I decided to write a quick post that will hopefully ruin your day as well.

Dating, it’s a numbers game.

If you ask the pessimists or the cynics what the probability is of meeting your soul mate their answer is simple: 0% “because man is naturally polygamous and love doesn’t exist”.

Now, of course, the first step is believing that your “soul mate” exists. I know a lot of people don’t believe that everyone has a soul mate, but for the purposes of this post, let’s just ignore them

Our country has recently released the statistics from the 2011 census and I have been busy crunching some numbers:

First, some basics:

• There were about 51.8 million people living in South Africa last year.
• There were 25.2 million (48.7%) males counted in Census 2011, compared to 26.6 million (51.3%) females.
• Close to 60% of the population is under the age of 35.

Okay, so after some expert Googling, I have found a formula for calculating the maximum number of potential soul mate candidates simply by multiplying the population of your chosen language by the percentage of your preferred sexual orientation. Let’s call this your Personal Soul Mate Index (PSMI).

I have chosen to use the statistics from the whole of South Africa as to give myself a better chance…

For example, my chosen language is Afrikaans. (6 855 082 Afrikaans speaking people). The ratio of male to female population is 48.7:51:3 in favour of women, so I multiply the 6 855 082 by 0.487, which would roughly be 3 338 425. I would then reduce that number by 2% (which is the alleged gay ratio), to get my PSMI, leaving me with 3 204 888 straight Afrikaans-speaking males.

Okay, so I have a one in 3 204 888 chance of finding that one person to spend my life with… Not to depress you any further but in May 2011, the World Health Organisation reported that life expectancy fell from 56 to 54 years in South Africa.

Let’s say I live to be 54… holy crap… that leaves me with 29 years.

(365 days * 22 common years) + (366 days * 7 leap years) = 10 592 days to go.

So, if I want to meet my soul mate and I am unlucky enough to have had to meet every single person in my entire PSMI before I finally meet Mr. Right, I would have to meet 3 204 888 people over 10 592 days which equals 303 people per day.

Well, let’s just give up now…

But I am still going to be studying for the next 5 years, so I am going to narrow some statistics down to my lovely province of Gauteng.

We have 12 272 263 people in Gauteng.

That is:     6 189 875 males

                        6 082 388 females

You will probably want to communicate to your “soul mate”, and as our country has 11 languages I’ll narrow it down to the two I can actually understand. There are thus

1 502 940 (12.4%) who speak Afrikaans and

1 603 464 (13.3%) who speak English in Gauteng.

I have told the dating service that I am currently looking to find someone between the ages of 25-34:

In Gauteng there are 2 705 619 people in this age bracket.

Of which are male:  1 191 803

And female:              1 275 232

Right, so there are thus 83 429 more females (aged 25-34) in my province. That is a whole lot of competition.

If I date only of the same race that means that there are only:

324 080 white males in Gauteng

330 605 white females in Gauteng

This leaves the old “every pot has a lid” theory busted. That still leaves me with 6525 females who might not find their deksel.

Of the 324 080 white males in Gauteng that leaves me to meet 31 men a day…for the next 29 years…until I die… at the age of 54… probably of a broken heart…

Yes, if these statistics seems depressing, you should read the education stats.

Of theses 324 080 white males in Gauteng aged 25-34, you need to add even more requirements of which I am way too rusty with my mathematical ability to do… but should you be some genius please DO NOT LET ME KNOW what the actual statistical probability of meeting a soul mate is…I am afraid I will be forced to have to agree with the pessimists and the cynics.

Anyway, add the requirements of:

• Language
• Height
• Religion and
• Relationship status (yes, some of these 324 080 are married, gay, in committed relationships or… bald… and hence, not my type) and lastly
• Mutual feelings… for example, my last date with Number 3 went very well and I liked him…but turns out he didn’t like me…at all!

 And you have to admit: it's a wonder anybody finds anybody...

Yes, there are very few things in the world today that have escaped scientific scrutiny. Love, dating and relationships, subjects that were once considered anything but exact science, have become hot topics for serious statisticians and those who see the world through graphs, pie charts and monochromatic columns. Google it!

Do any of the statistics come as a big surprise and does knowing them actually help make romance and South African dating simpler or easier?

I’m going to my first “Do it right” Saturday sessions this Saturday which will be on body image. Lord knows, I will need it now.

So cheers to still believing in statistical impossibilities and being a die hard romantic at heart! This pot will find her lid!